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Bracketology Update 2/22

As three weeks remain until Selection Sunday, teams are beginning to become more volatile week to week. A lot of movement in the seed list this week, especially in seeds 9 through 12. The five biggest risers and fallers of the week can be found below.

Risers of the Week:

Florida State: The Seminoles began the week in the 5-6 seed range but have jumped up to a 3 seed after going 2-0 this week, including an impressive 21-point win over Virginia. Florida State now ranks in the top 15 in NET, SOR and KenPom and is in first place in the ACC.

North Carolina: How can a team go from a faller to riser in one week? Well, have a showing like the Tar Heels did this week. After starting as an 11 seed, UNC jumped up to a 9 after going 2-0 on the week, highlighted by a 45-point win over Louisville on Saturday. The team’s NET skyrocketed into the top 35 and it now ranks in the top 30 across all other key metrics.

Maryland: The Terrapins started the week on the bubble in the First 4 Out, but rose up to a 10 seed after going 3-0, including a road win over Rutgers. Maryland dug itself out of a hole and is now almost .500 in conference play. The team’s NET now ranks in the top 35 and its 5 Quad 1 wins help strengthen its resume.

Wichita State: Beginning the week, the Shockers were out of the field. But after a win over top-10 Houston, they have positioned themselves to be a 12 seed and the American auto-bid. Wichita State currently leads the AAC and its matchup against SMU this week will be pivotal in helping it’s at-large chances prior to the conference tournament.

Boise State: The Broncos were a 12 seed to start the week but have rose to a 10 seed. After going 1-3 coming off of a COVID pause, Boise State has won 4 straight, including 2 games this week over Utah State. The team now leads the Mountain West and ranks in the top 35 in NET. The Broncos’ games this week against San Diego State will be big for both teams’ seeding in the coming weeks.

Fallers of the Week:

Louisville: At the start of the week, the Cardinals were in the 7-8 seed range, but have dropped to a 10 seed after a 45-point loss to UNC. The team’s NET now ranks in the 50s after it has gone 2-4 over its last 6 games. Despite some losses, Louisville is still in a good position in the ACC and is just a win or so away from earning a tournament bid.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers were a 10 seed coming into the week but dropped into the First 4 Out after again failing to get their first road win. Minnesota has lost 3 straight games and its NET now ranks in the 60s. The Golden Gophers, however, have many Quad 1 wins from this year to lean on, and their chances on Selection Sunday will come down to picking up a road or neutral win in the next few weeks.

Utah State: After beginning the week as a 12 seed and the Mountain West auto-bid, the Aggies are now out of the tournament after losing two games this week to Boise State. Utah State has fallen to fourth in the conference standings, but has proven throughout the season that it can be competitive with anyone in the MW, making it a team that will have a real chance at taking home the Mountain West title.

Xavier: The Musketeers were a 9 seed to begin the week but have dropped to an 11 after going (1-2 over its last 3. Xavier has had 11 games postponed due to COVID, with its last win over a projected tournament team being back in December. However, when the Musketeers are at their best, they definitely pass the “eye test” for a tournament team, and have a winnable remaining schedule, including a game against Creighton to improve their chances.

Tennessee: The Volunteers started the week in the 3-4 seed range but dropped to a 5 seed after a 15-point loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Tennessee has lost 2 of its last 3 games, but still has quality wins this season that keep its NET ranking in the top 20. The Volunteers are just one good week away from being back in the 3-4 seed conversation.

Message @Tbracketology with any questions or comments on this week's seed list!


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