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Mid-Major At-Large Simulation 1/21

Feeling uncertain about your team's chances on Selection Sunday? We've conducted a simulation of some of the most solid mid-major teams to see what their chances of making March Madness are without having to win out or win their conference championship. (Note: This simulation assumes that current bubble teams will continue their seasons at an average win rate.)


Disclaimer: Because this data is a simulation, it is not a guarantee that a team will make the tournament if they hit these marks, but it will certainly put them in the conversation.


Davidson: 9-5 record, 73 NET, 91 SOR, 64 KenPom

Games Remaining: 11

The Wildcats will need to go 9-2 over their remaining regular season games to put themselves in a good position. Key matchups down the stretch will include St. Bonaventure and a home/away series against VCU. With its best win so far having been at Rhode Island, Davidson will need to win 2 out of these 3 key games.


Western Kentucky: 11-4 record, 87 NET, 47 SOR, 88 KenPom

Games Remaining: 12

While the Hilltoppers have racked up some good wins thus far, such as their 73-71 victory at Alabama, they will need to go 10-2 over the rest of the regular season to make their case for a tournament bid. Despite its strong start, Western Kentucky's remaining schedule presents games that it cannot afford to lose.


Toledo: 12-4 record, 64 NET, 71 SOR, 69 KenPom

Games Remaining: 13

The Rockets will need to notch a 11-2 remaining record to have a shot at the tournament. While a 12-4 start is commendable, Toledo lacks a marquee win this season and will need to take home some crucial wins towards the end of the year, such as its February matchup against Bowling Green.


Loyola Chicago: 11-3 record, 30 NET, 76 SOR, 24 KenPom

Games Remaining: 11

A 9-2 remaining record should put the Ramblers back in the hunt to repeat their 2018 Final Four run. Despite a strong NET and KenPom ranking, Loyola Chicago lacks a quality win so far this season, and will need to split its two series down the stretch against undefeated Drake and 9-1 Missouri State.


Missouri State: 9-1 record, 77 NET, 65 SOR, 120 KenPom

Games Remaining: 12

Similar to Loyola Chicago, the Bears will need to finish the regular season 10-2. Missouri State is without a strong win this year but will have some opportunities against Drake and Loyola Chicago – four games it should look to split. Unlike the Ramblers, Missouri State likely won't be able to rely on high metrics, making wins much more critical.


Furman: 10-4 record, 62 NET, 115 SOR, 80 KenPom

Games Remaining: 12

The Paladins have put together a decent season thus far, and should look to finish 10-2 the rest of the year. Of its last 12 games, 10 teams Furman will face are above .500, giving the Paladins a strong opportunity to increase their already-high NET and SOS rankings.


Abilene Christian: 11-3 record, 91 NET, 95 SOR, 126 KenPom

Games Remaining: 12

So far this season, the Wildcats have passed the "eye test," having played Arkansas and Texas Tech very close in 2 of their 3 losses. However, Abilene Christian's loss Wednesday night to Sam Houston State puts it in a position to have to finish the year 11-1. While the loss wasn't detrimental, it dropped the Wildcats' NET ranking 20 spots, giving them little room for any other conference losses down the stretch.


Pacific: 5-1 record, 82 NET, 69 SOR, 116 KenPom

Games Remaining: 13

Despite going 5-1 so far this year, the Tigers have had 10 games canceled or postponed, so they will need to go 10-3 to finish the season. 2 of Pacific's final 13 matchups will be against No. 1 Gonzaga – games that present an opportunity for the biggest marquee win of any team this year, but not something Tiger fans should set their sights on given the Bulldogs' dominance.


San Francisco: 9-7 record, 84 NET, 117 SOR, 78 KenPom

Games Remaining: 10

Despite an early-season win over Virginia that would be one of the better wins of a bubble team, the Dons have been up and down to start West Coast Conference play and need to end the season going 9-1. Three of San Francisco's next four games are against top-five teams in the conference, giving it a chance to hit the ground running and enter the tournament conversation.


Georgia State: 8-2 record, 60 NET, 63 SOR, 107 KenPom

Games Remaining: 12

The Panthers opened their season with a thrilling four-overtime win at Georgia Tech and haven't looked back. Because 10 of its last 12 games to end the regular season are against teams above .500, Georgia State can potentially afford to go 10-2 and have a shot at an at-large tournament bid.


Other teams that have also been simulated: UAB, Colgate, Siena, Belmont, Saint Mary's, Rhode Island.

DM @TBracketology if you want this data or more info about the above simulations!



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