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NCAA Tournament Berth Update 2/25

14 days until we have an official NCAA Tournament bracket! Questions still remain about which teams are safely in the field, and who has some work to do still. We have broken down that information, by conference, below. Take a look and let us know your thoughts!


Definitions:

Lock: could theoretically lose out and still make the field

Should be In: would take a major collapse to miss the field, have a solid resume to this point

Bubble: fall somewhere in the 7-9 seed range all the way to just outside the field. Are in, or just barely out, but not quite safe yet

Almost Flat Bubble: have not been eliminated from at-large contention yet, but are just about in “win out” territory. 5% or less odds to make the field


Conferences:


ACC

Locks: Virginia, Miami, Duke

Should Be In: Pittsburgh

Bubble: NC State, North Carolina

Almost Flat Bubble: Clemson, Wake Forest


Since the last update, Duke has become a lock, and Pitt has moved to should be in with the dominant win over Syracuse. Pitt beats ND, and they are a lock. NC State shifts down to the bubble after a metric deflating loss to Clemson, but are still above last 4 in. North Carolina needs to win out the regular season to move into the field. Clemson and Wake Forest need a lot to go their way, along with winning out the regular season on the almost flat bubble.


American

Locks: Houston

Should Be In: None

Bubble: Memphis

Almost Flat Bubble: None


No changes here. Memphis needs to win tomorrow vs Cincinnati to keep things from getting dicey. If Memphis gets by SMU next week, have to feel good about its odds, but a win over Houston locks it in 100%.


Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU

Should Be In: None

Bubble: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

Almost Flat Bubble: Oklahoma


No changes to the top two sections. Tough losses for all three Big 12 bubble teams today. West Virginia likely needs 1/3 games including the Big 12 tournament opener to get in, but two wouldn't hurt. Top 10 SOS, solid metrics and good OOC wins helps its case. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech do not have the out of conference wins or metrics that WVU has. Oklahoma State needs at least one more win, if not two including the B12 tourney opener. Texas Tech, meanwhile, needs at least two more wins, maybe three. Oklahoma remains on the page after today's win, but with the Sooners under.500, its unlikely OU sneaks in as an at-large.


Big East

Locks: Xavier, Marquette, UConn, Creighton

Should Be In: Providence

Bubble: None

Almost Flat Bubble: Seton Hall, Villanova


Providence remains one win away from a lock for us. Can do that tomorrow against a pesky Georgetown team. Seton Hall falls below the bubble after the tough 22 point loss on Friday. Meanwhile, Villanova enters the almost flat bubble with the win today. Nova will need to win out the regular season, and more, to have a real shot.


Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, Iowa

Should Be In: Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers

Bubble: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan

Almost Flat Bubble: Nebraska


Illinois and Iowa's latest wins have both teams up to lock status. Maryland and Michigan State are also very likely already there, but will wait for one more win just to be sure. Both may not even need it. Maryland lacks a big time road win, and Michigan State has one last "land mine" on the schedule with Ohio State at home. Rutgers just needs to avoid losing to Minnesota, and they will be in despite the recent seed decline. RU has multiple quality road wins that stand out. Wisconsin and Michigan meet Sunday in what is a big time bubble game to say the least.


Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State

Should Be In: None

Bubble: New Mexico, Nevada, Boise State, Utah State

Almost Flat Bubble: None


No movement change here, but things have gotten tighter for some. New Mexico is in a massive bubble game as we speak against San Diego State in a game it really needs. Boise State losing to San Jose State today makes it a bit tighter, but the Broncos still may just need one more win. If Nevada can win at Wyoming, they should be in a very good spot as well, and above the bubble. Utah State needs to at least win its last two regular season games to have a shot. Likely needs an additional game after that.


Pac-12

Locks: Arizona, UCLA

Should Be In: None

Bubble: USC, Arizona State, Oregon

Almost Flat Bubble: Colorado


What a shot from Arizona State today to beat Arizona on the road and remain on the bubble! Among the first 4 out today. USC got a win over Utah to stay in the field, but still need more to be safe. Oregon does not have a quality win left on the regular season schedule, so it will be tough to catch back up. Colorado is 95% in need of winning the Pac-12 tournament, but it becomes 100% in need of that if the Buffs lose to UCLA tomorrow. Utah must win the Pac-12 tournament and are therefore now off the page.


SEC

Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky

Should Be In: Missouri, Arkansas, Texas A&M

Bubble: Mississippi State, Auburn

Almost Flat Bubble: Vanderbilt


Kentucky moves into lock status for us after the dominant win over Auburn. Missouri has likely done enough, but two potential bad losses remain on the schedule, so we will hold off for another day. Texas A&M and Arkansas, despite losing today, also just need one more win to be a 100% lock, but also could still make it with losing out potentially. Auburn and Mississippi State are heading in different directions of late, but both are among our "last 4 byes", so squarely on the bubble. Vanderbilt's hopes are slim, but not 0% for an at-large.


WCC

Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Marys

Should Be In: None

Bubble: None

Almost Flat Bubble: None


Gonzaga and Saint Marys are playing now on ESPN. That's all to see here!


Other Mid-Majors

Locks: None

Should Be In: None

Bubble: FAU, Oral Roberts, Charleston

Almost Flat Bubble: North Texas


Due to some results from today, FAU could go 1-1 next week, and lose a Q2 game in the C-USA tournament and still possibly make it. However, it's a lock with a 2-0 week next week. Would recommend that. It will be difficult for Oral Roberts, Charleston, or North Texas to make up enough ground to make the field without winning each's respective conferences.



Thanks for reading! You can also check out our latest Bracketology update from 2/24 and/or our Week 15 Teams of the Week to see who is on the rise of late. DM @TBracketology with questions about the bubble or any other CBB questions!

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