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NCAA Tournament Bid Watch 2/25

With now less than a month until we have an official NCAA Tournament bracket, questions loom about which teams are safely in the field, and who has some work to do still. We have broken down that information, by conference, below. Take a look!


Lock: could theoretically lose out and still make the field

Should be In: would take a major collapse to miss the field, have a solid resume to this point

Work to Do: fall somewhere in the 8-9 seed range all the way to just outside the field. Are in, or just barely out, but not quite safe yet

Fringe Bubble: have not been eliminated from at-large contention yet, but are just about in “win out” territory



Locks: Duke

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, North Carolina

Fringe Bubble: Virginia, Virginia Tech

Most of the ACC remains the same. The teams in "work to do" still find themselves on the bubble, some safer than others. Miami would be "safest" for us today of that group, but all of these teams need more wins to move up.


Locks: Houston

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Memphis, SMU

Fringe Bubble: None

If Cincinnati or Wichita State win out the regular season, they may re-enter the bid conversation. For now, the American is straight forward. Houston is a lock, while Memphis and SMU continue to battle for some of the last at-large spots.

Atlantic 10

Locks: None

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Davidson, VCU, Dayton, St Bonaventure

Fringe Bubble: Saint Louis

No changes to the groups for the Atlantic 10 from the last update. Davidson remains in the best spot of the work to do group, but is by no means safe yet. Saint Louis will need a significant run to get closer to the field.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas

Should Be In: Iowa State

Work to Do: TCU, Kansas State

Fringe Bubble: Oklahoma, West Virginia

Iowa State jumps to the should be in group, and is not far off from a lock. Despite the Cyclones conference record, this group has numerous quality wins that those on the bubble won't be able to likely match. TCU is in a safer position that Kansas State, who is not currently in our field, but could use another win to move up a spot. Both OU and WV fall in our fringe bubble as neither is above .500 on the season.

Big East

Locks: Villanova, Providence, UConn

Should Be In: Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall

Work to Do: Creighton

Fringe Bubble: St Johns

Marquette is one win away from being a lock for us. Xavier and Seton Hall are not far off in their own right. Creighton is closer to the field than in our last bid watch update, but will need to see how the Bluejays respond to the Ryan Nembhard injury before moving them to "should be in" as the committee will take that into account.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State

Should Be In: Iowa, Michigan State

Work to Do: Indiana, Rutgers, Michigan

Fringe Bubble: None

If Iowa wins over Nebraska on Friday, they will move to lock status for us. The recent surge has put the Hawkeyes in a great position. Michigan State probably remains one win away as well, but the recent tough stretch puts that into question. The Spartans have Purdue on Saturday, and a win of that magnitude would lock it up. The work to do group remain firmly on the bubble needing every win they can get.

Mountain West

Locks: Colorado State

Should Be In: Boise State

Work to Do: Wyoming, San Diego State

Fringe Bubble: Fresno State

Colorado State, welcome to lock status! Boise State also shifts to "should be in" and is likely one win away from becoming a lock for us. Wyoming is just one away from "should be in", and likely two wins away from a tournament lock. Fresno State has road games upcoming against Wyoming and SDSU which are great opportunities so we will leave them on the fringe bubble today.


Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Oregon

Fringe Bubble: Stanford

USC, welcome to lock status! The number of wins continues to rise and we have locked in a third Pac-12 team! Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday to remain in the picture. More work to do for the Ducks to get into the field.


Locks: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas

Should Be In: LSU

Work to Do: Florida

Fringe Bubble: Mississippi State, South Carolina

Alabama and Arkansas, you are now officially NCAA Tournament locks! LSU remains just one win away from clinching a berth for us. South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the country and is close to moving up to the work to do group and within the first 8 out.


Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: San Francisco, BYU

Fringe Bubble: None

No changes for the WCC since the last update. San Francisco put together a quality showing in the loss to Gonzaga Thursday night, but still has work to do.

Other Mid-Majors

Locks: None

Should Be In: Murray State

Work to Do: Loyola Chicago, North Texas

Fringe Bubble: Belmont, Iona, South Dakota State

Murray State is one win away from a lock for us. Either a win Saturday or a win in the OVC quarterfinals will put the Racers into our field regardless of what happens in the rest of the OVC tournament. Belmont drops to fringe bubble as there are limited opportunities remaining for the Bruins to improve its resume. South Dakota State keeps its place on the fringe bubble after pulling off a thrilling OT win over Oral Roberts.

Thanks for reading! You can also check out our latest Bracketology update from 2/22 and/or our Teams of the Week 2/14-2/20 to see who is on the rise of late. DM @TBracketology with questions about the bubble watch or any other CBB questions!


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