With now less than a month until we have an official NCAA Tournament bracket, questions loom about which teams are safely in the field, and who has some work to do still. We have broken down that information, by conference, below. Take a look!
Definitions:
Lock: could theoretically lose out and still make the field
Should be In: would take a major collapse to miss the field, have a solid resume to this point
Work to Do: fall somewhere in the 8-9 seed range all the way to just outside the field. Are in, or just barely out, but not quite safe yet
Fringe Bubble: have not been eliminated from at-large contention yet, but are just about in “win out” territory
Conferences:
ACC
Locks: Duke
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, North Carolina
Fringe Bubble: Virginia, Virginia Tech
Most of the ACC remains the same. The teams in "work to do" still find themselves on the bubble, some safer than others. Miami would be "safest" for us today of that group, but all of these teams need more wins to move up.
American
Locks: Houston
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: Memphis, SMU
Fringe Bubble: None
If Cincinnati or Wichita State win out the regular season, they may re-enter the bid conversation. For now, the American is straight forward. Houston is a lock, while Memphis and SMU continue to battle for some of the last at-large spots.
Atlantic 10
Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: Davidson, VCU, Dayton, St Bonaventure
Fringe Bubble: Saint Louis
No changes to the groups for the Atlantic 10 from the last update. Davidson remains in the best spot of the work to do group, but is by no means safe yet. Saint Louis will need a significant run to get closer to the field.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas
Should Be In: Iowa State
Work to Do: TCU, Kansas State
Fringe Bubble: Oklahoma, West Virginia
Iowa State jumps to the should be in group, and is not far off from a lock. Despite the Cyclones conference record, this group has numerous quality wins that those on the bubble won't be able to likely match. TCU is in a safer position that Kansas State, who is not currently in our field, but could use another win to move up a spot. Both OU and WV fall in our fringe bubble as neither is above .500 on the season.
Big East
Locks: Villanova, Providence, UConn
Should Be In: Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall
Work to Do: Creighton
Fringe Bubble: St Johns
Marquette is one win away from being a lock for us. Xavier and Seton Hall are not far off in their own right. Creighton is closer to the field than in our last bid watch update, but will need to see how the Bluejays respond to the Ryan Nembhard injury before moving them to "should be in" as the committee will take that into account.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State
Should Be In: Iowa, Michigan State
Work to Do: Indiana, Rutgers, Michigan
Fringe Bubble: None
If Iowa wins over Nebraska on Friday, they will move to lock status for us. The recent surge has put the Hawkeyes in a great position. Michigan State probably remains one win away as well, but the recent tough stretch puts that into question. The Spartans have Purdue on Saturday, and a win of that magnitude would lock it up. The work to do group remain firmly on the bubble needing every win they can get.
Mountain West
Locks: Colorado State
Should Be In: Boise State
Work to Do: Wyoming, San Diego State
Fringe Bubble: Fresno State
Colorado State, welcome to lock status! Boise State also shifts to "should be in" and is likely one win away from becoming a lock for us. Wyoming is just one away from "should be in", and likely two wins away from a tournament lock. Fresno State has road games upcoming against Wyoming and SDSU which are great opportunities so we will leave them on the fringe bubble today.
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: Oregon
Fringe Bubble: Stanford
USC, welcome to lock status! The number of wins continues to rise and we have locked in a third Pac-12 team! Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday to remain in the picture. More work to do for the Ducks to get into the field.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas
Should Be In: LSU
Work to Do: Florida
Fringe Bubble: Mississippi State, South Carolina
Alabama and Arkansas, you are now officially NCAA Tournament locks! LSU remains just one win away from clinching a berth for us. South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the country and is close to moving up to the work to do group and within the first 8 out.
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Should Be In: None
Work to Do: San Francisco, BYU
Fringe Bubble: None
No changes for the WCC since the last update. San Francisco put together a quality showing in the loss to Gonzaga Thursday night, but still has work to do.
Other Mid-Majors
Locks: None
Should Be In: Murray State
Work to Do: Loyola Chicago, North Texas
Fringe Bubble: Belmont, Iona, South Dakota State
Murray State is one win away from a lock for us. Either a win Saturday or a win in the OVC quarterfinals will put the Racers into our field regardless of what happens in the rest of the OVC tournament. Belmont drops to fringe bubble as there are limited opportunities remaining for the Bruins to improve its resume. South Dakota State keeps its place on the fringe bubble after pulling off a thrilling OT win over Oral Roberts.
Thanks for reading! You can also check out our latest Bracketology update from 2/22 and/or our Teams of the Week 2/14-2/20 to see who is on the rise of late. DM @TBracketology with questions about the bubble watch or any other CBB questions!