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  • T3 Bracketology

NCAA Tournament Bid Watch 3/3

We are less than two weeks away from March Madness folks, who is excited!? With the clock running out on the regular season, check out where each team, by conference, stands in terms of their chances to make the NCAA Tournament


Lock: could theoretically lose out and still make the field

Should be In: would take a major collapse to miss the field, have a solid resume to this point

Work to Do: fall somewhere in the 8-9 seed range all the way to just outside the field. Are in, or just barely out, but not quite safe yet

Fringe Bubble: have not been eliminated from at-large contention yet, but are just about in “win out” territory



Locks: Duke

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Fringe Bubble: Virginia

Most of the ACC continues to remain the same. Virginia Tech's latest stretch of games has moved them into our Next 4 Out and thus into the "work to do" category.


Locks: Houston

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Memphis, SMU

Fringe Bubble: None

The AAC remains the same, and likely will until the last weekend. Houston is a lock, while Memphis and SMU are firmly on the bubble, needing every win they can get

Atlantic 10

Locks: None

Should Be In: Davidson

Work to Do: VCU, St Bonaventure

Fringe Bubble: Dayton

Davidson is now just one win away from locking in a tournament berth, so the Wildcats jump to "should be in"! VCU remains the A-10's best shot at a second bid, and Dayton drops to fringe bubble after the loss to La Salle.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State, TCU

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: None

Fringe Bubble: Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia

Iowa State and TCU jump into lock status after wins over the weekend! The rest of the conference, outside of Oklahoma State who cannot participate this season, remains on the fringe bubble. All three will need to string a few wins together to get back into the picture.

Big East

Locks: Villanova, Providence, UConn, Marquette, Seton Hall, Creighton

Should Be In: Xavier

Work to Do: None

Fringe Bubble: St Johns

Marquette, Seton Hall and Creighton all picked up the wins necessary to become locks since we last updated our bid watch. Xavier remains likely one win away from securing a berth. St Johns keeps itself on the fringe bubble after the recent victory over Xavier.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Indiana, Rutgers, Michigan

Fringe Bubble: None

The Big Ten picture is very clear to this point. Iowa and Michigan State joined the lock category, while Michigan, Rutgers and Indiana are still firmly on the bubble, as they have been for a few weeks now. Michigan, followed by Rutgers and then Indiana are in the best shape within the Big Ten work to do group.

Mountain West

Locks: Colorado State, Boise State

Should Be In: Wyoming, San Diego State

Work to Do: None

Fringe Bubble: None

Boise State has entered lock status! Congrats Broncos! Wyoming and San Diego State themselves are just one win away, while the rest of the conference will need to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament.


Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Oregon

Fringe Bubble: Colorado

Stanford exits our fringe bubble and is replaced by Colorado after the impressive win over Arizona on Saturday. The rest of the Pac-12 picture is the same as its been for a while now. Three locks, with Oregon still fighting to get in.


Locks: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Florida

Fringe Bubble: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M

LSU enters the SEC lock group, and Texas A&M sneaks back onto the fringe bubble after an impressive win over Alabama on Wednesday night. Florida is still on the outside looking in but has a great opportunity coming against Kentucky this weekend.


Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: San Francisco, BYU

Fringe Bubble: None

San Francisco sits in a much safer position than BYU, and may even be one win away from a berth to the tournament. However, a first round loss in the WCC tournament makes it dicey, so we will leave SF as a work to do team for now. No other changes for this league

Other Mid-Majors

Locks: Murray State

Should Be In: None

Work to Do: Loyola Chicago, North Texas

Fringe Bubble: Belmont, Iona, South Dakota State, UAB

Murray State earned a well deserved lock on Saturday, and finished the regular season undefeated in Ohio Valley play. Every other mid-major listed here still has significant work to do to make the field. North Texas currently sits in the best position, while Loyola Chicago, Belmont, Iona, South Dakota State, and UAB all at least need to make their respective conference tournament final to have any shot. Even then, the odds would be a bit slim.

Thanks for reading! You can also check out our latest Bracketology update from 3/3 to see who is on the rise of late. DM @TBracketology with questions about the bubble watch or any other CBB questions!


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